How tall am I again? A longitudinal analysis of the reliability of self-reported height.

Self-reported height measures are increasingly being included in large-scale surveys in order to measure BMI. There have been concerns about the validity of self-reported measures but there remains little understanding of why respondents may not give accurate height reports. We examine whether a lack of knowledge could be a contributing factor, by investigating the reliability of self-reported height over time and across countries. We use longitudinal data from four large-scale longitudinal surveys conducted in Australia, United States, United Kingdom, and Europe (14 countries) where survey respondents were asked to report their height over multiple time periods to measure the extent of consistency of height reports across time. The overall level of inconsistent reporting of height is largest in Australia and Europe. Individuals with lower levels of education were significantly more likely to give two height reports that differed by 5 cm or more. Across all countries, inconsistent reporting with large height differences between waves was also more common among those in older populations. The findings point to subgroups of the population exhibiting a lack of knowledge regarding their own height.

Declining realisation of reproductive intentions with age.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the likelihood of having a child within 4 years for men and women with strong short-term reproductive intentions, and how is it affected by age? SUMMARY ANSWER: For women, the likelihood of realising reproductive intentions decreased steeply from age 35: the effect of age was weak and not significant for men. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Men and women are postponing childbearing until later ages. For women, this trend is associated with a higher risk that childbearing plans will not be realised due to increased levels of infertility and pregnancy complications. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This study analyses two waves of the nationally representative Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. The analytical sample interviewed in 2011 included 447 men aged 18-45 and 528 women aged 18-41. These respondents expressed a strong intention to have a child in the next 3 years. We followed them up in 2015 to track whether their reproductive intention was achieved or revised. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTINGS, METHODS: Multinomial logistic regression is used to account for the three possible outcomes: (i) having a child, (ii) not having a child but still intending to have one in the future and (iii) not having a child and no longer intending to have one. We analyse how age, parity, partnership status, education, perceived ability to conceive, self-rated health, BMI and smoking status are related to realising or changing reproductive intentions. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Almost two-thirds of men and women realised their strong short-term fertility plans within 4 years. There was a steep age-related decline in realising reproductive intentions for women in their mid- and late-30s, whereas men maintained a relatively high probability of having the child they intended until age 45. Women aged 38-41 who planned to have a child were the most likely to change their plan within 4 years. The probability of realising reproductive intention was highest for married and highly educated men and women and for those with one child. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our study cannot separate biological, social and cultural reasons for not realising reproductive intentions. Men and women adjust their intentions in response to their actual circumstances, but also in line with their perceived ability to have a child or under the influence of broader social norms on reproductive age. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our results give a new perspective on the ability of men and women to realise their reproductive plans in the context of childbearing postponement. They confirm the inequality in the individual consequences of delayed reproduction between men and women. They inform medical practitioners and counsellors about the complex biological, social and normative barriers to reproduction among women at higher childbearing ages. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This research was partly supported by a Research School of Social Sciences Visiting Fellowship at the Australian National University and an Australian Research Council Discovery Project (DP150104248). Éva Beaujouan's work was partly funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) project 'Later Fertility in Europe' (Grant agreement no. P31171-G29). This paper uses unit record data from the HILDA Survey. The HILDA Project was initiated and is funded by the Australian Government Department of Social Services (DSS) and is managed by the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research (Melbourne Institute). The findings and views reported in this paper, however, are those of the authors and should not be attributed to either DSS or the Melbourne Institute. The authors have no conflicts of interest.

Childbearing desires of childless men and women: when are goals adjusted?

This paper examines the concept of desired future fertility. Childbearing desires are often conceptualized in the literature as representing an individual's ideal future fertility where there are no constraints or obstacles to achieve the desired outcome. As such, childbearing desires, unlike fertility intentions, are thought to be relatively unaffected by changing life circumstances. Using a theoretically driven model incorporating goal adjustment, we test whether desires of childless men and women do in fact change over time. Using data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey (2001-2010) we specifically investigate whether changing life circumstances do effect a change in childbearing desires. We find that age is strongly related to adjusting childbearing desires, as is relationship formation. Desires are however, not greatly influenced by short-term shocks such as an episode of poor health or unemployment, although these events have different effects for women and for men. Overall, the findings are consistent with psychological theories of goal adjustment, that is, individuals will revise their desires for having children if they perceive that their desires are not likely to be fulfilled.